Validating Large Scale Simulations of Socio-Political Phenomena

Period of Performance: 03/11/2008 - 10/31/2008


Phase 1 SBIR

Recipient Firm

Evidence Based Research, Inc.
1595 Spring Hill Road Suite 250
Vienna, VA 22182
Principal Investigator


There is a growing recognition that simulations representing social and political phenomena are very useful to today s military to support planning and execution of operations associated with irregular warfare. While many technical challenges are being addressed by DARPA, social science simulations still present an overarching problem: methods and capabilities to show that a simulation is working correctly for an appropriate class of applications are not sufficiently developed for a sponsor/user to confidently apply it in an operational environment. It is EBR s belief, supported by related experience, that the credibility of such simulations can be established if 1) the use is appropriate for the type of simulation; 2) the simulation has been designed to be validatable for that use; and 3) a complementary set of validation and verification capabilities and techniques are available. This work will provide DARPA with a vision for validatable simulations, including appropriate use classes, simulation capabilities needed to enable validation, and promising tools and techniques to assess the degree to which a simulation is sufficiently credible to support the identified classes of applications. This research will identify technical challenges associated with this vision and selected a set of solution options for development in Phase II.