Probabilistic subseasonal weather forecasts for the energy & agriculture sectors

Period of Performance: 07/18/2016 - 07/24/2018

$400K

Phase 2 SBIR

Recipient Firm

Climate Forecast Applications Network, LLC
20 Woodchuck Ct, Array
Reno, NV 89519
Firm POC
Principal Investigator

Abstract

This proposal from Climate Forecast Applications Network addresses the challenge of providing business-relevant subseasonal forecasts for the energy and agricultural sectors, including applications to renewable energy. An innovative multi-model prediction system using the CFSv2 and ECMWF forecasts will be developed to exploit the advantages of each model. An interactive web-based dashboard system is designed to display and deliver the forecast information in a flexible and dynamic manner to aid decision support integration. A comprehensive assessment of predictability of businessrelevant variables by region, initial and target month, and atmospheric flow regimes provides the basis for assessing the confidence of individual forecasts and for identifying forecast ‘windows of opportunity’. An ensemble calibration scheme uses predictability assessment, reforecasts and recent forecast errors to correct for model bias error and to improve the shape of the ensemble distribution. Advanced ensemble interpretation techniques support scenario predictions of extreme events. A strategy for assessing confidence of each forecast is based on a comprehensive forecast evaluation, predictability assessment, and ensemble characteristics.