Adversarial Reasoning

Period of Performance: 04/19/2000 - 12/23/2000

$99K

Phase 1 SBIR

Recipient Firm

CHI Systems, Inc.
2250 Hickory Road Suite 150
Plymouth Meeting, PA 19462
Principal Investigator

Research Topics

Abstract

We propose to develop a software tool called Socio-Culturally Oriented Planning Environment or SCOPE to support the analysis of adversarial reasoning in a broad context that includes both military and sociocultural factors. In the first stage of tool development, a multi-layered theoretical model of adversarial reasoning and decision making will be constructed, leveraging on recent advances in the modeling and simulation of individual cognition. We propose an innovative approach to constructing this model that will link multiple levels of phenomena - individual cognition, situational factors, sociological factors, and cultural factors. The resulting ETHOS model will be computational in nature allowing it to be transitioned into software and embedded in SCOPE to support planning and analysis of adversarial reasoning. SCOPE will consist of three major subsystems: (1) a model-development subsystem that supports development of ETHOS-based models for specific situations; a What-if Adversarial Cognitive Wargaming subsystem that supports wargames by providing ETHOS-generated opponent responses; and (3) a Post-Simulation analysis subsystem that captures the results of a wargame and supports analysis of the action-counter-action sequence and the reasoning and decision making processes executed by the ETHOS model. SCOPE, as the software implementation of the ETHOS adversarial reasoning model, will significantly advance the sophistication and fidelity of military planning and training simulation systems. Further, SCOPE and the ETHOS model may contribute to US-NATO intelligence capabilities and to the planning of information and psychological warfare operations. In the private sector, they will have a wide range of applications because of their ability to elucidate and predict decision making behavior. Applications may include marketing, corporate strategic planning, and maintaining cross-cultural business relations.