Complex Organizational REasoning System (CORES)

Period of Performance: 03/15/2002 - 11/30/2002

$99K

Phase 1 SBIR

Recipient Firm

Aptima, Inc.
12 Gill Street Array
Woburn, MA 01801
Principal Investigator

Abstract

For OOTW there is a need to work with, respond to, understand, and predict the behavior of a wide range of organizations?ranging from military units to coalition forces, terrorist cells, and civilian populations. Planning for OOTW requires being able to reason about how a diverse range of organizations will respond. Intelligence analysts and mission planners need a tool to understand the behavior of these organizations and predict their possible responses to new events and actions. We propose to draw on computational organizational modeling theory to design the Complex Organizational REasoning System (CORES) tool in Phase I, and to develop CORES in Phase II. We will begin by identifying the strengths and weaknesses of existing computational organizational models for meeting the needs identified in two OOTW scenarios. We will identify core organizational characteristics that differentiate how the organization will respond to new events and a core set of behaviors, actions, and decision parameters that need to be included if we are to significantly improve planning and rehearsal capabilities. Finally we will develop a conceptual framework for the CORES computational model, storyboards based on a concept use that demonstrate the value of CORES, and a plan for validating the CORES models. CORES will be a flexible tool composed of a suite of organizational models, each of which can be tailored for new populations and cultures and new rules of interaction. When used in response mode, CORES will be able to evaluate recommended courses of action to increase the likelihood that the organizations of interest will respond as desired. This tool will greatly aid analysts in predicting how various organizations will respond in OOTW situations and will aid planners in deciding how to respond to these organizations. Beyond military operations, this tool will have application across a broad spectrum of uses including better planning by multinational crisis response and humanitarian assistance organizations such as the Red Cross and to the organizers of responses to large scale industrial accidents in international settings (such as the Exxon Valdez incident and Union Carbide gas leak in Bhopal).